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Essay #4:
Where do all these cups come from,
and how many are left?
Where do all these cups come from,
and how many are left?
I've addressed the first part of the title in Essay #1, but some questions remain. Just
the other day I got in a box of seven cups, all with patterns I had never seen before. (I
have included photos of the seven in question on this page.) They weren't all
spectacularly interesting, but still they made me wonder about the amazing popularity
of these cups during the first half of the 20th century.
I mean, I handle about 200-300 cups every week. Sometimes fewer, sometimes more.
And I have been doing this for a few years now. So I guess I can claim to have seen as
least as many cups as anyone else. Yet still I come across new designs. Amazing...
Just how popular were these cups?
They were so popular that they were given for a number of reasons: military
discharges, prizes for competition, military drafts, battle commemoratives, and
regiment disbandments, Imperial coronations, among many other events. Military
designs were wildly popular on other things, too, such as kimono, clocks, tableware,
dishes, posters, pamphlets, magazines, etc. The list goes on and on. No doubt the
addition of a military design boosted sales, and things that sold well were made in
greater numbers.
In addition, the Japanese are fond of giving small gifts for all occasions, and these
sake cups were just perfect: small, fairly inexpensive, functional, and trendy. So I
suppose millions were bought and sold.
Dan King raised this interesting question: If most of the Japanese cities were
fire-bombed, how did these cups survive in such great numbers? Well, one reason is
pure luck, but that is not really good enough. A more plausible reason is that many of
the cups you see are from the countryside, where the bombings either took place
erratically or not at all. I know that a lot of my finds are in country areas.
So when you are amazed to see yet another rare cup on my store pages, please know
that I am as amazed as you are. I keep wondering when the supply of rare cups will
abate. However, almost every month I find new treasures.
Which brings me to the second question in the title. When will the supply of sake cups
in Japan run out? It seems quite clear that there is a mass exodus of sake cups from
Japan to other countries, but that seems to be the case with all Japanese militaria.
Although the antique business is circular (that is, the cups being bought today will be
sold again in the future), one must wonder about the number of cups remaining in
Japan.
I did some simple math. If I sold 500 cups a week (that figure is very high--I don't even
sell half that number), and if I have been doing it for five years, that would bring the total
of cups sold by me to 130,000. And if I continue to sell at the same rate for ten more
years, that would be 390,000 cups. Now if 15 other sellers sold the same number for
the same amount of time, the total would be 5,850,000. That would most certainly
exhaust the supply, wouldn't it?
Consider that military sake cups date from about 1894 to 1945. During that time, how
many soldiers and sailors served? In 1939 alone the IJA had about 1.5 million men. In
1945 there were 5.5 million, but one can assume that very few of them received a
commemorative cup for the last years (although some could have gotten some for
earlier service). And compulsory military service began in the Meiji era, so millions of
men had served by the time the Pacific War began. Since most cups are pre-1941, one
can assume that 1/3 of the soldiers that had served up to 1940 might have received a
cup or two. That means there were a tremendous number of cups produced, perhaps
even more than six million.
My numbers are fuzzy, I know. And it is all conjecture, but it seems quite probable,
doesn't it? Millions still remain to be found...!
Of course, the vast majority of the cups are simple patterns consisting of flags,
blossoms, stars, etc. But among the pedestrian millions, there must be many really
cool items waiting to be found.
Any thoughts? Are my numbers skewed? Any feedback would be welcome.
the other day I got in a box of seven cups, all with patterns I had never seen before. (I
have included photos of the seven in question on this page.) They weren't all
spectacularly interesting, but still they made me wonder about the amazing popularity
of these cups during the first half of the 20th century.
I mean, I handle about 200-300 cups every week. Sometimes fewer, sometimes more.
And I have been doing this for a few years now. So I guess I can claim to have seen as
least as many cups as anyone else. Yet still I come across new designs. Amazing...
Just how popular were these cups?
They were so popular that they were given for a number of reasons: military
discharges, prizes for competition, military drafts, battle commemoratives, and
regiment disbandments, Imperial coronations, among many other events. Military
designs were wildly popular on other things, too, such as kimono, clocks, tableware,
dishes, posters, pamphlets, magazines, etc. The list goes on and on. No doubt the
addition of a military design boosted sales, and things that sold well were made in
greater numbers.
In addition, the Japanese are fond of giving small gifts for all occasions, and these
sake cups were just perfect: small, fairly inexpensive, functional, and trendy. So I
suppose millions were bought and sold.
Dan King raised this interesting question: If most of the Japanese cities were
fire-bombed, how did these cups survive in such great numbers? Well, one reason is
pure luck, but that is not really good enough. A more plausible reason is that many of
the cups you see are from the countryside, where the bombings either took place
erratically or not at all. I know that a lot of my finds are in country areas.
So when you are amazed to see yet another rare cup on my store pages, please know
that I am as amazed as you are. I keep wondering when the supply of rare cups will
abate. However, almost every month I find new treasures.
Which brings me to the second question in the title. When will the supply of sake cups
in Japan run out? It seems quite clear that there is a mass exodus of sake cups from
Japan to other countries, but that seems to be the case with all Japanese militaria.
Although the antique business is circular (that is, the cups being bought today will be
sold again in the future), one must wonder about the number of cups remaining in
Japan.
I did some simple math. If I sold 500 cups a week (that figure is very high--I don't even
sell half that number), and if I have been doing it for five years, that would bring the total
of cups sold by me to 130,000. And if I continue to sell at the same rate for ten more
years, that would be 390,000 cups. Now if 15 other sellers sold the same number for
the same amount of time, the total would be 5,850,000. That would most certainly
exhaust the supply, wouldn't it?
Consider that military sake cups date from about 1894 to 1945. During that time, how
many soldiers and sailors served? In 1939 alone the IJA had about 1.5 million men. In
1945 there were 5.5 million, but one can assume that very few of them received a
commemorative cup for the last years (although some could have gotten some for
earlier service). And compulsory military service began in the Meiji era, so millions of
men had served by the time the Pacific War began. Since most cups are pre-1941, one
can assume that 1/3 of the soldiers that had served up to 1940 might have received a
cup or two. That means there were a tremendous number of cups produced, perhaps
even more than six million.
My numbers are fuzzy, I know. And it is all conjecture, but it seems quite probable,
doesn't it? Millions still remain to be found...!
Of course, the vast majority of the cups are simple patterns consisting of flags,
blossoms, stars, etc. But among the pedestrian millions, there must be many really
cool items waiting to be found.
Any thoughts? Are my numbers skewed? Any feedback would be welcome.
